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mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";} </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapedefaults v:ext="edit" spidmax="1026"/> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:shapelayout v:ext="edit"> <o:idmap v:ext="edit" data="1"/> </o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--> </head> <body lang=NL link=blue vlink=purple style='tab-interval:35.4pt'> <div class=WordSection1> <p class=style1><span style='font-size:16.0pt'>Website of dr Aart F de Vos<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p>&nbsp;<strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>This website is renewed <span class=GramE>The</span> old one had my &quot;<span class=SpellE>selfportait</span> from 1916&quot; by </span></strong><a href="Hahn.html"><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Albert Hahn</span></strong></a><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:14.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Now concerned only with</span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span><span class=GramE><span class=style51><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:36.0pt; mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>The</span></b></span></span><span class=style51><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:36.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> p-value debate</span></b></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=GramE><span class=style21><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size: 24.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>click</span></b></span></span><span class=style21><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:24.0pt;mso-ansi-language: EN-US'> <u><span style='color:blue'><a href="pvalue/Flyernew.htm">here</a></span></u></span></b></span><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span></strong><span class=style21><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:24.0pt;mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>for the official flyer </span></b></span><span class=style21><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:18.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>(updated 21 <span class=SpellE>september</span>)</span></b></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:18.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=GramE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>that</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> takes place on my </span><span class=style31><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:18.0pt;mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>farewell symposium </span></b></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=style31><b><span style='font-size:18.0pt'>on 30 September 2011, 13.15, Tinbergen Institute</span></b></span></p> <table class=MsoNormalTable border=0 cellspacing=1 cellpadding=0 width="100%" style='width:100.0%;mso-cellspacing:.7pt;margin-left:3.75pt;mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;mso-padding-alt:2.25pt 16.5pt 2.25pt 16.5pt'> <tr style='mso-yfti-irow:0;mso-yfti-firstrow:yes;mso-yfti-lastrow:yes'> <td valign=top style='padding:2.25pt 16.5pt 2.25pt 16.5pt'> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:2.25pt'><span style='font-size:14.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"'>Gustav Mahlerplein 117 1082 MS Amsterdam<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:2.25pt'><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:14.0pt;mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>(<span class=SpellE>Straigh</span> south of station Amsterdam South: two big yellow towers, go between them. Take east tower, south entrance)<o:p></o:p></span></p> </td> </tr> </table> <p><span class=GramE><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:14.0pt;mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>for</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:14.0pt;mso-ansi-language: EN-US'> which I wrote my &quot;scientific will&quot;:<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=style2><strong><a href="pvalue/pvalue4.1fig.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>How to use the p-value in making decisions</span></a></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><strong><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:16.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>A bridge between Bayesian decision analysis and classical <span class=GramE>test,</span> put in the context of statistical education of business students.<o:p></o:p></span></strong></p> <p><span class=GramE><strong><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:16.0pt; mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>With challenging ideas about <span class=SpellE>Bayes</span> Factors and null Hypotheses.</span></strong></span><strong><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:16.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>&nbsp; So challenging that some famous speakers will be there:</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:16.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=style2><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Speakers</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=style2><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Prof. J.M. (Jose) Bernardo<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=style2><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Prof J.O. (Jim) Berger <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=style2><span class=GramE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Prof A. (Tony) O'Hagan.</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=style2><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Prof P.D. (Peter) <span class=SpellE><span class=style41><span style='text-decoration: none;text-underline:none'>Grünwald</span></span></span> <o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=style2><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Prof M.K. (Marc) <span class=SpellE>Francke</span><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p class=style2><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-font-weight: bold'>Dr J.M. (<span class=SpellE>Koos</span>) <span class=SpellE>Sneek</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=style31><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:18.0pt;mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Followed by <span class=GramE>a<strong><span style='font-size:12.0pt'> <span style='mso-spacerun:yes'> </span></span></strong><span class=style21><b><span style='font-size:24.0pt'>debate</span></b></span></span></span></span><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span></strong><strong><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:14.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>led by</span></strong><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> </span></strong><span class=SpellE><span class=style21><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:24.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>prof</span></span></span><span class=style21><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:24.0pt;mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> A.W. (<span class=SpellE>Aad</span>) van der <span class=SpellE>Vaart</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p> <p><span class=style21><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:24.0pt;mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>Coordination <span class=SpellE>prof</span> S.J. (<span class=SpellE>Siem</span> Jan) Koopman</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Background articles</span></strong><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=GramE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>de</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> Vos, A.F. &amp; <span class=SpellE>Francke</span>, M.K. (2008) </span><a href="pvalue/unirtroot.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Bayesian Unit Root Tests and Marginal Likelihood</span></a><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>&nbsp;(Article on unit root tests with extensive proofs related to the p-value problem)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=SpellE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Tol</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>, R.S.J. &amp;de Vos, A.F (1998) </span><a href="Publications/greenhouse.pdf"><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language: EN-US'>A Bayesian analysis of the enhanced greenhouse effect </span></a><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span class=GramE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>de</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> Vos, A.F </span><a href="Publications/Wiegendood.pdf"><span class=SpellE><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>Statistiek</span></span><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> en <span class=SpellE>Wiegendood</span></span></a><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'> (Statistics and Cot Death, in Dutch)<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><span lang=EN-US style='mso-ansi-language:EN-US'>And <strong>for those unfamiliar with Bayesian inference:</strong><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p><a href="primer/primer.pdf">My primer on Bayesian inference</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> </div> </body> </html>